Tu Van Giao Thong

In five years, the order of the big banks will likely change

A large number of joint stock banks have the ability to pass state-owned banks on the effectiveness, as well as the scale of operation in 3-5 years.
In 2009, Vietcombank has the highest return value of the state banks with 5,004 billion(Vietcombank still considered state-owned banks for more than 90% owned by the State Bank still holds).

However, the bank can not maintain a growth rate of profit, expected profit in 2010 was 4,500 billion (lower than 10%).With Vietinbank, profit before tax in 2009 is 3,373 billion dong in 2010 is expected to be 4,000 billion (up 18.6%).

Meanwhile, shares of banks like ACB, Techcombank, Sacombank is expected to maintain relatively high growth rate of profits.In 2009, the bank profit of 2,838 billion and is expected to reach 3,600 billion in 2010 (up 27%);Techcombank is the figure at 2,253 billion and 3,467 billion (up 54%);Sacombank is 1,901 billion and 2,400 billion (up 26%).
With profit growth as above, just over two years, Vietinbank likely ACB and Techcombank beyond the face of profit.

In addition to a growth rate higher than two times earnings, even three times over a number of state banks, large banks also share growth rate of total assets higher.If the 2010, Vietcombank is expected to total assets increased by only 15% (293,820 billion), Vietinbank is 20% (292,500 billion); the Techcombank is 56% (144,382 billion); Sacombank is 48%; ACB is 25% (reaching 210,000 billion).

A senior official of the State Bank of Vietnam to comment, the bank may be the first joint-stock banks in the top four largest banks in total assets in the next 4 years if they maintain a growth rate growth as in the past 3 years.However, if the state banks are the major changes, the situation may be different.

"If maintained as current and the bank shares such as ACB, Techcombank, Sacombank, Eximbank ... faster growth rate, the time beyond the state banks may also come earlier," the official said.

Talking to VnExpress.net, senior leaders of a state-owned banks likely to be admitted beyond the ACB of the property is real.The leaders said that the structure of a joint stock banks actually help to speed up faster than state-owned structures or elements owned stock.

In addition, the state banks and state-owned stock elements (SOEs still accounted for more than 90% of capital) must also perform tasks such as political tool for state implementation of monetary policy to achieve be as effective as the joint stock banks is really very difficult.

A senior member of the Banking Association said: "It is true that the bank shares with the great progress in recent years but the state banks have taken huge strides.Additionally, if the state has used the state-owned banks as a tool to the state will strengthen the bank rather than to weaken it.Thus, the joint stock banks is not easy to pass up the big state. "